Breaking the mould? South Africa at a crossroads as country goes to polls

The sun has risen over Soshanguve. It is winter in South Africa, which – if you are living in a poorly insulated, unheated house on the arid, elevated plains north of Pretoria – means cold and sleepless nights. Morning brings warmth and, these days, politicians.

On Wednesday, South Africa will go to the polls. Up to 26 million registered voters will decide who they want as mayors and local councillors – and possibly redraw the political map of the country when they do it.

For the first time since taking power in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) may win less than 60% of the votes. The party may even lose control of the biggest cities. Surveys show the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) – which calls for a total renewal of South African politics, but has so far had difficulty breaking out of its stronghold in the west of the country – ahead in the most important cities.

ANC officials have dismissed the polls. In Pretoria, Thoko Didiza, the ANC mayoral candidate, said she was confident of victory. “My campaign is going very well,” the 51-year-old former minister told the Guardian.

The DA candidate in the city saw things differently. “This is the moment when we break the mould,” said Solly Msimanga, 36.

The stakes are undoubtedly high. Losing control of cities such as Pretoria and Johannesburg would deal an enormous blow to the prestige of the ANC and deepen already profound unease about the leadership of Jacob Zuma, president of South Africa and of the party.

The ANC would also lose immense influence over the daily lives of around 14 million people and annual budgets of $10bn (£7.5bn). It would come as a profound psychological shock to many ANC officials. One recently told supporters that the party, which led the struggle against the apartheid regime through the 1970s and 1980s, had been “anointed by God”.

Pretoria, also known as Tshwane, is a city that sprawls. The contrast between life in the vast, high-walled mansions of wealthy neighbourhoods such as Waterkloof and in the townships is immense. There is chronic substance abuse and some of the highest levels of violent crime in the world.

But despite youth unemployment rates touching 36%, there is opportunity too, and the city attracts tens of thousands of migrants from rural areas and neighbouring countries every year. Many live in desperate squatter camps on the rim of Pretoria.  

Soshanguve was established by the apartheid regime on an almost empty, flat plateau north of the city. Over 20 years, successive ANC administrations have built homes, streets and parks, and provided basic utilities. It is solid ANC territory, as was clear when Didiza’s convoy rolled into the centre of the township.

Local party functionaries warmed up the crowd with protest songs that have been ANC standards for more than 30 years. One refers to the armoured trucks used by apartheid police forces to brutally control the townships. The references were lost on Portia Chake, who didn’t understand the old slang name for the vehicles, but the 34-year-old knew the words to a second chant: “You can arrest us, beat us and we will never lie down.”

Didiza, wearing a T-shirt celebrating the foundation of the ANC 104 years ago, ran through her campaign speech, listing the achievements of the party. This strategy was predictable, experts said. “The ANC have been in power since 1994 and will naturally claim credit for all improvements since then. And there certainly has been a dramatic improvement in most people’s lives over the period as a whole,” said Gareth Newman, an expert in governance at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria.